Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
