A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
